Michael Kordowski | Transfer Courier
Summer tourism expands consumer spending.
High inflation rates and in metropolitan areas Skyrocketing housing and rental prices This led to more cautious financial management by private households. Broad segments of the population focused their consumer spending and investments on the most necessary goods. From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, the savings rate in the euro area rose from 13.3 to 14.7%. Meanwhile, the investment ratio fell from 10.2 to 9.6%. The Consumption has stagnated: Real growth in per capita consumption was unchanged in the third quarter of 2023 and slightly decreased by -0.1% (quarter-on-quarter) in the fourth quarter.
Newly edited, seasonally adjusted GDP data While the economy stagnated in the Eurozone with GDP growth of 0.1% in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, there is a modest increase in growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024. Controlled recovery. In the EU, GDP growth accelerated by 0.2 to 0.5% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. Among the member states that reported GDP growth figures for the first quarter of 2024, Lithuania reported the highest at 2.9% and Ireland reported the largest decline at -4.9%. Apart from Ireland, Sweden, Austria and Germany also recorded declines in economic output.
Retail sales slump
However shrunk In the first two months of 2024 compared to the previous year Sales volume at retail The euro area is still at 0.9 and 0.7% respectively. While the decline in non-food products (ex-motor fuels) in the euro area eased from -0.7 to -0.1%, the “Food, Beverages, Tobacco Products” sector declined to -1.3 and -1.4% in January and February 2024 respectively. Many people still focus on their budget when doing their weekly shopping.
Due to the various fast-growing “former Eastern bloc countries”, the decline in sales volume in the entire EU retail sector was not as pronounced as in the euro zone (-0.2%). Looking at individual countries, Belgium, Austria, Slovenia, Finland and Sweden One in each consecutive month for the last six months (up to February 24) on an annual basis Shrinking sales volume. During the same period, the fall Spain, Croatia, Cyprus and Luxembourg with continued growth On that day.
A consumer-friendly holiday season?
According to the author, the latter countries could benefit from one Benefit from tourism development. Tourists love shopping, while the long-term trend is increasingly towards online commerce. But serious use Online trading There is a current one during epidemics The opposite trend As a result. Shopping centers and shopping streets A return can now be looked forward to, especially in countries with high tourism frequency, especially as new records emerge this year in terms of travel activity.
A sample is given here Spain: In 2023, Exeltur tourism association expects foreign tourist spending to increase by 24.7% to 108.9 billion euros and in 2024, including domestic tourist spending – to 200 billion euros. Italy also has a strong frequency. In general, travel is on the rise and wallets are looser on vacation. It remains to be seen whether there will be any positive “consumption surprises” during the summer. The weather here is still an unknown factor.
Conclusion
One last thing High savings rates to navigate in certain situations Strong consumer activity during the holiday season in advance. Current “savings behavior” and quiet operation in the retail industry can be demonstrated “Be the calm before the summer storm” It turns out.
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Wiener Porsche AG expressly points out that the information, calculations and charts presented are based on past values, from which no conclusions can be drawn regarding future growth or stability of value. Price fluctuations and capital losses are possible in bond trading. The article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not represent a financial analysis or investment recommendation of Wiener Pors AG.
